Agricultural Estimates

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USDA REPORT DD. 09 OCT, 2015

WHEAT: Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 2.0 million tons, on both increased production and beginning stocks. The biggest production increases are 1.0 million tons each for Australia and Canada, and 1.1 million tons for EU. The Canada and EU increases are based on government reports and harvest progress. Australia had sufficient sub-soil moisture that allowed it to withstand a drier-than-normal September; increased yield potential is supported by satellite imagery. The United States had the largest production decline. The global wheat crop is now projected at 732.8 million tons, the third consecutive record. World wheat exports for 2015/16 are raised 3.0 million tons with increases for several key U.S. competitors. Ukraine is raised 1.5 million tons on a larger crop. Canada exports are raised 1.0 million tons, and Australia, the EU, Kazakhstan, and Russia are each raised 0.5 million tons. These increases are based on larger supplies and export pace to date. Partly offsetting is a 1.4 million ton reduction for the United States and a 0.5 million ton decline for Argentina. Imports are raised 1.0 million tons in Iran on the elimination of an import duty and 0.5 million tons in Syria because of distribution problems. Total world usage is up fractionally, and ending stocks are raised 1.9 million tons to a record 228.5 million tons.

COARSE GRAINS: Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected 8.3 million tons lower mostly on reduced foreign corn beginning stocks and production. Global corn beginning stocks are lowered 1.2 million tons, reflecting higher 2014/15 EU corn feeding and exports and Ukraine exports. Global corn production for 2015/16 is lowered 5.5 million tons with reductions for Ukraine, Argentina, India, Philippines, and several Sub-Saharan African countries more than offsetting an increase for Brazil. Brazil corn production is also raised for 2014/15. Global 2015/16 production is lowered for rye, millet, sorghum, and barley. Rye production is lowered for EU. Millet and sorghum production are lowered for a number of Sub-Saharan African countries. Barley production is lowered for Russia, but mostly offset by increases for EU, Canada, and Australia. Mixed grain production is also raised for EU, leaving EU coarse grain production higher on the month. Global 2015/16 coarse grain consumption is lowered 6.4 million tons with a 4.8-million-ton reduction in corn usage and smaller cuts in rye, millet, and sorghum consumption. Much of the decline in coarse grain consumption is for those Sub-Saharan African counties with lower output this month; however, reductions are also made for corn consumption in Saudi Arabia, EU, Ukraine, and Philippines, and rye consumption in EU. Corn trade for 2015/16 is lowered with a reduction in Saudi Arabia imports. Corn exports are lowered for Ukraine and Argentina but raised for Brazil. Global 2015/16 corn ending stocks are projected 1.9 million tons lower at 187.8 million, 8.2 million lower than in 2014/15.

OILSEEDS: Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 531.0 million tons, up 3.9 million from last month on higher soybean, rapeseed, sunflower, and peanut production. Global soybean production is projected at a record 320.5 million tons, up 0.9 million with higher Brazil production only partly offset by lower projections for the United States, India, and Ukraine. Brazil soybean production is projected at a record 100.0 million tons on higher area. A sharp decline in the value of the Brazilian real recent months is expected to lead to increased area despite lower international soybean prices this year. Soybean crops in Ukraine and India are reduced on lower projected yields. Rapeseed production for Canada is projected at 14.3 million tons, up 1.0 million based on higher yields reported in the most recent survey from Statistics Canada. Global sunflowerseed production is raised on higher estimates for Argentina and Ukraine. Global oilseed stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 96.3 million tons, up 1.4 million mainly on higher rapeseed stocks in Canada and China, and higher sunflowerseed stocks in Argentina and Ukraine. Global soybean stocks are raised marginally as higher stocks for Brazil are only partly offset by reductions for the United States, Argentina, and India.

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USDA REPORT DD. 11 SEP, 2015

WHEAT: Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 6.7 million tons, primarily on increased production in the EU and FSU. Partly offsetting are reductions in Canada and India. EU yields are significantly better than expected and the 2015 crop is now only 2.3 million tons below last year’s record. Partly offsetting are reductions in Canada and India. These production changes reflect harvest reports and updated government estimates to date. The global wheat crop is now projected at 731.6 million tons and the third consecutive record. World beginning stocks are up 1.6 million tons, led by a large increase for Canada as reported by Statistics Canada. World exports are higher with by far the biggest increase for the EU, which is raised 1.5 million tons on the much larger crop. Ukraine was raised 0.5 million tons also on a larger crop. Partially offsetting is a 0.7-million-ton reduction for the United States due to increased foreign competition. Global imports are up, with the biggest increases being 0.5 million tons for Brazil and 0.3 million tons for Philippines. EU imports are reduced 0.5 million tons and Indonesia is reduced 0.3 million tons. Global use is up 1.6 million tons on increased feed use, especially in the EU and Russia and the Philippines. Reductions in food use are partially offsetting. With supplies growing much faster than use, global ending stocks are raised 5.1 million tons to a record 226.6 million tons.

COARSE GRAINS: Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected 2.3 million tons lower as a 7.5-million-ton reduction in world corn production more than offsets a 5.3-million-ton increase in world barley output. Much of the decline in global corn production reflects a 4.3-million-ton reduction in EU corn and this month’s lower U.S. production, but small reductions are also made for the Philippines, Moldova, Serbia, and Thailand. Barley production is raised for Russia, EU, Canada, Turkey, and Ukraine. Global 2015/16 coarse grain consumption is raised slightly, mostly on higher expected barley consumption for EU and Saudi Arabia. Global corn consumption is lowered 2.3 million tons with the reduction in U.S. feed and residual use and lower corn feeding expected in EU. Higher EU barley and wheat feeding more than offset reductions for corn and oats. EU corn imports are raised 1.0 million tons. Global corn imports for 2015/16 are raised 2.0 million tons as increases for Vietnam, Mexico, and the Philippines combine with that for EU. Corn exports for 2015/16 are raised for Ukraine. A 1.0-million-ton increase in 2014/15 Brazil corn exports, reflecting higher expected shipments through February 2016, also helps meet higher expected global corn import demand resulting from the crop short-fall in EU during the 2015/16 marketing year. Global 2015/16 corn ending stocks are projected 5.4 million tons lower at 189.7 million, 7.5 million lower than for 2014/15.

OILSEEDS: Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 527.2 million tons, down 1.9 million from last month. Soybean production is reduced for Ukraine, where dry conditions in August lowered yield expectations. Soybean production is also reduced for Canada with lower yields more than offsetting increased harvested area as reported by Statistics Canada. Sunflowerseed production forecasts are lowered for several countries including China, the EU, Moldova, and India. Global rapeseed production is raised slightly with gains for Canada and the EU mostly offset by reductions for India and Turkey. Other changes include reduced peanut production for India and reduced cottonseed production for Brazil. Global oilseed trade for 2015/16 is reduced 1.0 million tons to 143.8 million, mainly reflecting reduced soybean exports for Ukraine. Global oilseed crush is projected lower on reduced oilseed supplies. Global oilseed stocks are projected lower mainly on lower soybean stocks in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Ukraine, and the United States.

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USDA REPORT DD. 12 AUG, 2015

WHEAT: Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 2.2 million tons primarily on increased production in the FSU and Turkey. A 2.4-million-ton reduction in global beginning stocks partially offsets the production increase; EU accounts for over 60 percent of the reduction. World wheat production is projected at a record. Crop conditions in the spring wheat areas of Russia and Kazakhstan continue to be excellent. Winter wheat production in Russia and Ukraine is better than expected, particularly considering last autumn’s drought. A 1-million-ton reduction for Canada, due to drought conditions in the western prairies, is partially offsetting. Argentina production was lowered 0.4 million tons to 11.1 million. World exports are lower with the biggest decreases for Canada (smaller crop), Argentina (smaller crop and lower carryin), and the United States. Global imports are also down with the biggest changes being a 1-million-ton reduction for Iran offset by a 1-million-ton increase for Morocco. Iran’s imports are reduced as a result of a newly imposed import duty and the Morocco change is from a Foreign Agricultural Service GAIN report. Global use is up slightly, supported by increased feed and residual use for EU, Russia, and Ukraine. With supplies growing faster than use, global ending stocks are raised 1.7 million tons to a record 221.5 million tons.

COARSE GRAINS: Foreign corn production for 2015/16 is reduced 5.5 million tons with reductions for China, EU, and Serbia, only partly offset by increases for Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia. Global barley production is higher this month with increases for Ukraine and Morocco outweighing a reduction for Canada. Global 2015/16 coarse grain consumption is lowered slightly with a reduction in global corn use driven by reductions in corn feeding for EU, China, and Ukraine. Higher wheat feeding is expected for EU and Ukraine, and higher sorghum feeding for China. Global coarse grain trade is higher with corn imports raised for EU, barley imports raised for Saudi Arabia, and sorghum imports raised for China. Corn exports are raised for Ukraine, Brazil, and Russia with larger crops. Corn exports are reduced for Serbia, EU, and the United States. Barley exports are raised for Ukraine, but lowered for Canada. Sorghum exports are raised for the United States with the larger crop. Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2015/16 are raised this month with a 5.1-million-ton increase for corn mostly on higher stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Mexico.

OILSEEDS: Reductions for rapeseed, sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and peanuts more than offset an increase in soybean production. Soybean production is projected up 1.1 million tons with higher crops for the United States and Ukraine. Rapeseed production is reduced 2.6 million tons as hot and dry weather curtailed yields in Canada and the EU, while harvested area is lowered for Ukraine, Belarus, and Australia. Other changes include lower EU sunflowerseed production, and reduced cottonseed production for India and China. Projected 2015/16 global soybean ending stocks are lowered 4.9 million tons to 86.9 million with a higher crush for China, the EU, and the United States. Despite this month’s reduction, global soybean stocks remain record high. Projected soybean imports for China in 2015/16 are increased 1.5 million tons to 79 million and up from a revised 2014/15 forecast of 77 million. Soybean exports for Brazil and Argentina are projected higher due to growth in global trade.

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USDA REPORT DD. 10 JUL, 2015

WHEAT: Global wheat exports are lowered 0.3 million tons to 158.1 million, down nearly 4 percent from the previous year. The largest import reduction is for Iran, which is lowered 1.0 million tons on large supplies. EU imports are raised 1.0 million tons with the smaller crop and more expected imports of feed-quality wheat from Ukraine. China imports are raised 0.8 million tons on increased purchases. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons each for Russia and Ukraine on larger crops and less competition from EU. The largest exporter reductions are 1.5 million tons for EU and 1.0 million tons for Canada, both on smaller crops. Global ending stocks for 2015/16 are raised 17.4 million tons to a record 219.8 million tons, mostly reflecting the 17.2-million-ton increase in China.

COARSE GRAINS: Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected down 4.3 million tons with much of the reduction from lower corn beginning stocks in the United States. Foreign coarse grain beginning stocks are also lower with Brazil corn stocks down 1.5 million tons. Brazil corn exports for 2014/15 are increased, outpacing this month’s increase in 2014/15 production. Globally, corn production for 2015/16 is lowered 2.2 million tons with reductions in the United States and EU only partly offset by increases for Brazil and China. EU corn production is lowered 2.4 million tons as recent excessive heat and developing dryness across major growing areas reduces yield prospects. Corn production is lowered 0.3 million tons for neighboring Serbia where heat and dryness are also concerns. Brazil corn production is raised 2.0 million tons for 2015/16 with higher expected area for the crop that will be planted in the coming months. China corn production is raised 1.0 million tons also on higher area. Global barley and oats production for 2015/16 are lowered with reductions for EU and Canada. Global 2015/16 coarse grain consumption is raised 0.9 million tons, partly reflecting higher expected sorghum feeding and imports for China with the larger U.S. crop. Corn feeding is raised for EU supported by larger imports as domestic grain supplies decline. World barley consumption is lowered with reductions for EU, Australia, and Canada on tighter global supplies. Brazil corn exports are raised for 2014/15 and 2015/16, up 2.5 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively. EU corn imports are raised in both years. Global 2015/16 corn ending stocks are projected 5.2 million tons lower mostly on the reduction expected for the United States. Corn ending stocks are also expected lower for EU and Brazil.

OILSEEDS: The soybean oil price projection is unchanged at 30.5 to 33.5 cents per pound. Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 531.8 million tons, down fractionally from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 318.9 million tons, up 1.3 million mostly due to higher production in the United States and Bolivia. U.S. peanut production is raised 0.2 million tons on higher harvested area as reported in the Acreage report. Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada with lower yields more than offsetting increased planted area reported by Statistics Canada. Rapeseed and sunflowerseed production are also reduced for EU on lower yields resulting from dry weather and above average temperatures that persisted through early July. Other changes include reduced rapeseed production for China and Russia, and reduced soybean production for Turkey. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 102.2 million tons, down 2.4 million mostly reflecting lower soybean stocks in the United States and reduced rapeseed stocks in Australia, Canada, and EU. South America soybean stock changes are mostly offsetting.

*Source: usda logo http://www.usda.gov