WHEAT: Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is raised 6.9 million tons with increases in wheat feeding projected for a number of countries and higher food use expected for India and Iran. Feed use is raised again this month for China with higher projected imports. Feed use is also increased for the European Union, Syria, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and Morocco. Wheat feeding is lowered for Thailand and Vietnam with lower imports projected for both countries. Imports are raised for Iran, Pakistan, Syria, and Turkey. Global wheat exports for 2013/14 are raised 4.9 million tons with increases for Kazakhstan, the European Union, Ukraine, and Canada totaling 7.0 million tons. Exports are lowered for Argentina and Brazil with reduced production prospects. India exports are also lowered as relatively high internal prices limit export opportunities. Rising world supplies reduce prices and support global consumption growth, thereby limiting the increase in projected 2013/14 global wheat ending stocks to 0.6 million tons.
COARSE GRAINS: Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 2.9 million tons lower as the reduction in the United States more than offsets an increase in foreign supplies. Global 2013/14 corn production is lowered 2.7 million tons. In addition to the United States, corn production is lowered for Mexico, the European Union, Russia, and Serbia. Partly offsetting are increases for Ukraine, India, and Turkey. Ukraine production is raised 3.0 million tons as higher reported area combines with favorable July temperatures to raise production prospects. Production is raised 1.0 million tons for India as favorable monsoon rainfall supports increased plantings and a higher yield outlook. Turkey corn production is raised 0.4 million tons with higher area and higher expected yields. Global barley production is raised 1.1 million tons with increases for the European Union, Argentina, and Turkey more than offsetting a reduction for Canada. Global rye and mixed grain production are also raised slightly this month with increases for the European Union.
Global 2013/14 corn trade is raised with increased imports projected for Mexico, South Korea, the European Union, and Egypt. Corn exports are projected higher for Ukraine, but partly offset by declines for Russia, the European Union, and the United States. Corn trade is also increased for 2012/13 with higher imports for Egypt, South Korea, Turkey, the European Union, and Indonesia. Exports for 2012/13 are raised for Brazil and Argentina. Supporting the increase in Brazil export prospects, particularly over the next few months, is a 3.0-million-ton increase in 2012/13 corn production. Global corn consumption for 2013/14 is projected 2.3 million tons lower
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 96.2 million tons, down 4.7 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean production forecast. Soybean production for 2013/14 is forecast at 3.255 billion bushels, down 165 million due to lower harvested area and yields. Harvested area is forecast at 76.4 million acres, down 0.5 million from the July projection. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 42.6 bushels per acre is 1.9 bushels below last month’s projection but 3 bushels above last year’s drought-reduced yield. Soybean supplies for 2013/14 are projected 5 percent below last month based on the lower production forecast. With reduced supplies and higher prices, U.S. soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels to 1.385 billion. Lower U.S. exports will be mostly offset by increases for South America, especially Argentina.