USDA December 2013

reduction-of-investmentsWHEAT: Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are raised 5.3 million tons to 887.3 million. This is up 32.1 million tons from last year, but 9.0 million tons below the record supplies of 2011/12. Global 2013/14 production is raised 5.0 million tons with most of the increase for Canada based on the latest Statistics Canada estimate which put production at a record 37.5 million tons. This is up 4.3 million tons from last month’s forecast and 5.4 million tons higher than the previous record in 1990/91 as excellent summer weather and an extended growing season boosted yields to record levels. Production is also raised for Australia, up 1.0 million tons to 26.5 million, slightly above the recent forecast by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences. Production is also raised 0.4 million tons for 2012/13 reflecting recent revisions to last year’s crop by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Partly offsetting this month’s 2013/14 increases is a small reduction for the European Union as the latest statistical reports lower output for Denmark, but raise output slightly for the Netherlands and France.

Global wheat trade for 2013/14 is raised this month with larger available supplies in key exporter countries and stronger demand expected for several importing countries. Exports are raised 1.5 million tons for Canada, 1.0 million tons for the European Union, 0.5 million tons for Australia, and 0.2 million for Turkey. Imports are raised for Egypt, Bangladesh, Mexico, Azerbaijan, South Korea, Syria, and Turkey. Most of the increase in exportable supplies is from higher production in Canada and Australia; however, in the European Union higher corn imports and feeding are expected to free up wheat to support the strong ongoing pace of sales and shipments. Wheat feeding is increased for Canada, Egypt, and South Korea. Wheat food use is raised for Bangladesh and Syria. Global wheat ending stocks are projected 4.3 million tons higher mostly on increases for Canada and Australia.

COARSE GRAINS: Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 3.6 million tons higher. At 1,420.5 million tons, supplies are up 122.8 million from 2012/13 and 103.1 million above the previous record in 2011/12. Corn accounts for more than 80 percent of the increase over this period with 2013/14 world corn production up 101.4 million tons from last year. Global corn output for 2013/14 is raised this month with Canada and Ukraine increased 1.1 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively. Partly offsetting are 0.4-million-ton reductions for both the European Union and Kenya. World barley and oats production are also raised, up 1.7 million tons and 0.8 million tons, respectively. Barley production is raised 1.2 million tons for Australia and 0.8 million tons for Canada. Partly offsetting are small reductions for Iran and the European Union. Oats production is raised 0.6 million tons for Canada with small increases also for the European Union and Australia.

Global 2013/14 coarse grain consumption is raised 4.3 million tons with half of the increase from higher foreign corn consumption. Corn feeding is raised for Canada, the European Union, and Ukraine. Foreign barley and oats consumption are also raised with increased barley feeding in Australia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Canada, and increased oats feeding in Canada. Higher coarse grain production in Canada, Australia, and Ukraine support increased use for these countries and higher imports allow for the increases for the European Union and Saudi Arabia. Global corn exports are raised 1.8 million tons with increases for the United States and Canada. Global barley exports are raised 0.9 million tons with increases for Australia, Ukraine, and Canada. World corn ending stocks are projected 1.9 million tons lower as the U.S. reduction is only partly offset by a 0.5-million-ton increase for Ukraine.

OILSEEDS: Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 502.3 million tons, up 2.9 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change with increases for soybeans, rapeseed, and palm kernel only partly offset by reductions in cottonseed, sunflower seed, and copra. Global soybean production is projected at a record 284.9 million tons, up 1.4 million due to increases for Argentina and Canada. Argentina production is projected at 54.5 million tons, up 1.0 million due to higher projected area. Global rapeseed production is projected at a record 70.0 million tons, up 2.1 million due to gains for Canada and Australia. Canadian rapeseed production is raised 1.9 million tons to 18.0 million based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada. Favorable conditions throughout the growing season resulted in record rapeseed yields this year. Other changes this month include lower sunflower seed production for Argentina and increased cottonseed production for Pakistan.

Global oilseed trade is projected at 128.3 million tons, up 1.6 million from last month. Increased soybean exports from the United States and increased rapeseed exports from Canada account for most of the change. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 82.8 million tons, up 2.1 million as lower soybean stocks in the United States are more than offset by increased soybean stocks in Argentina, Canada, the European Union, and Russia, and higher rapeseed stocks in Canada and Australia.