USDA January 2014

CBOTWHEAT: Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are raised 1.5 million tons to 888.8 million with production increases for China and the FSU-12 more than offsetting reductions for Argentina and the European Union. Production is raised 1.0 million tons for China reflecting the latest estimate by the China National Grain and Oil Information Center and indications from the National Bureau of Statistics for total 2013/14 grain production. Production is raised 0.6 million tons for Russia and 0.3 million tons for Tajikistan, both based on the latest official indications. Production is reduced 0.5 million tons for Argentina with harvested area expected lower. Production for the European Union is lowered 0.2 million tons with small downward revisions for the United Kingdom, Finland, and Denmark.

Global wheat trade for 2013/14 is raised with higher imports projected for Egypt, Japan, and Syria more than offsetting reductions for the Philippines and Tajikistan. Exports are raised for the European Union and Russia. Stronger North Africa and Middle East demand drives increases for the European Union and Russia, whereas reductions in Argentina supplies and exports indicate a shift to U.S. supplies for Brazil. Foreign wheat feeding is lower mostly reflecting a 1.0-million-ton reduction for the European Union where increased exports reduce supplies available to the domestic market. Larger barley supplies in the European Union this month support a shift to barley feeding. Global wheat ending stocks are projected 2.6 million tons higher mostly on increases for China and the United States.

COARSE GRAINS: Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 1.2 million tons higher despite this month’s reduction in U.S. production and a 1.9-million-ton decrease in global beginning stocks. Higher 2012/13 corn exports for Brazil reduce beginning stocks for 2013/14. Global barley production for 2013/14 is raised 1.6 million tons with increases for the European Union, Argentina, and Russia. Foreign corn production is raised 4.3 million tons with higher China production. China corn production is raised 6.0 million tons reflecting the latest upward revision by the China National Grain and Oil Information Center, indications from the National Bureau of Statistics for total 2013/14 grain production, and review of growing-season weather. Favorable weather suggests year-to-year yield increases in most of China’s major corn producing areas. In the northeastern region, above normal rainfall and favorable temperatures were experienced in nearly all of the corn areas. Harvested area is also raised for China.

Global 2013/14 coarse grain consumption is raised 4.2 million tons with the higher corn use in the United States and higher barley feeding in the European Union and Russia. World corn trade for 2013/14 is lowered with a 2.0-million-ton reduction in imports expected for China. Recent rejections of U.S. corn shipments by China and larger domestic corn supplies in China are expected to limit imports during the 2013/14 marketing year. China sorghum imports, however, are raised 0.5 million tons. Corresponding reductions in Mexico sorghum imports and feeding raise corn import needs for Mexico. Corn imports are raised for Mexico and the Philippines, up 0.5 million tons and 0.3 million tons, respectively. Corn exports for Argentina are lowered 1.0 million tons also supporting this month’s unchanged U.S. corn export projection. Global corn ending stocks are projected 2.2 million tons lower with an increase for China more than offset by reductions for the United States and Brazil.

OILSEEDS: Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at a record 505.9 million tons, up 3.6 million. Global soybean production is projected at 286.8 million tons, up 1.9 million on gains for the United States and Brazil. The Brazil soybean crop projection is raised 1.0 million tons to a record 89.0 million. The increase is due to higher projected area reflecting recent survey data from the Brazilian government. Global sunflower seed production is raised 1.3 million tons to 43.7 million on record forecasts for Ukraine, Russia, and the European Union. The Ukraine crop is raised 1.0 million tons to 12.5 million on higher yields. Other changes include increased cottonseed production for China and Argentina, lower cottonseed production for Pakistan, and increased rapeseed production for Russia.

Global oilseed trade for 2013/14 is projected at 128.9 million tons, up slightly from last month. Increased soybean exports for the United States are partly offset by reduced rapeseed export prospects for Australia and Canada. Lower soybean meal exports for Argentina resulting from lower soybean crush are offset by gains for the United States, Brazil, and Russia. Increased global soybean oil trade mainly reflects a higher projection for the United States. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 85.1 million tons, up 2.3 million from last month on increased soybean stocks in Argentina and Brazil, increased canola stocks in Canada, and higher sunflower seed stocks in Russia and Ukraine.