USDA July 2013


WHEATGlobal wheat supplies for 2013/14 are lowered 3.5 million tons reflecting lower projected beginning stocks as world production rises 1.9 million tons. Higher 2012/13 feed use in China accounts for most of the reduction in beginning stocks with smaller increases in domestic consumption for Pakistan, Russia, and Iran adding to the decline in 2012/13 global carryout. World production for 2013/14 is raised with increases for Australia, the European Union, and the United States offsetting a reduction for Kazakhstan. Production for the European Union is raised 1.2 million tons, however, the addition of Croatia accounts for most of the increase. Higher production prospects for Romania, Hungary, United Kingdom, and several smaller countries outweigh reductions for France, Ireland, and Spain. Production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Kazakhstan with lower planted area reported by the Ministry of Agriculture.

Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is raised 5.4 million tons mostly reflecting higher expected feeding in China. Wheat consumption is also raised for India, Pakistan, Iran, and Japan, offsetting reductions for the European Union and the United States. Global wheat trade is raised with a 5.0-million-ton increase in China imports. A 0.5-million-ton increase in imports for Iran is offset by the same size reduction for the European Union. World exports are raised 5.0 million tons with increases for Australia, the European Union, and the United States. Exports are lowered for India and Kazakhstan. World ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 8.9 million tons lower. At 172.4 million tons, stocks would be the lowest since 2008/09, but well above the 128.8 million in 2007/08.

COARSE GRAINSGlobal coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 3.6 million tons lower with 2.9 million tons of the decline resulting from the tighter supply situation for corn and sorghum in the United States. Foreign coarse grain supply and use changes this month are relatively small in the aggregate. Corn beginning stocks for 2013/14 are lowered for Brazil with higher 2012/13 exports and for Indonesia with lower 2012/13 production. China corn production for 2013/14 is lowered 1.0 million tons on lower indicated area. European Union corn production is increased 1.8 million tons when adjusted for this month’s inclusion of Croatia, however, last month’s 27-member union is lowered 0.4 million tons. Barley production is raised 0.5 million tons for Canada and 0.2 million tons for Kazakhstan, both on higher reported area. European Union barley production is raised 0.5 million tons with the addition of Croatia accounting for less than half the increase.

Global 2013/14 coarse grain trade is mostly unchanged this month with exports down slightly on the reduction for U.S. corn. Global corn consumption is down 2.6 million tons with half of the reduction in the United States. Corn consumption is also lowered for Indonesia. Global corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 151.0 million tons, down 0.9 million, with reductions for Brazil and China. World corn stocks are expected to be the highest since 2001/02.

OILSEEDSGlobal oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 492.9 million tons, up 2.1 million from last month. Higher forecasts for soybeans, rapeseed, cottonseed, and peanuts are only partly offset by reductions for sunflower seed. Global soybean production is projected at 285.9 million tons, up 0.6 million with gains for the United States, China, and Canada only partly offset by reductions for Argentina and Russia. Argentina soybean production is reduced due to a lower harvested area estimate for both 2012/13 and 2013/14. Rapeseed production for Canada is projected at 15 million tons, up 0.5 million based on increased area consistent with the latest survey results reported by Statistics Canada. Other changes include increased rapeseed production for China and Russiareduced sunflower seed production for Ukraine.