USDA November 2013

MoneyWHEAT: Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are lowered 0.8 million tons as a decline in global output more than offsets higher beginning stocks, mostly in the European Union. European Union production for 2012/13 is revised higher and domestic consumption is estimated lower boosting 2013/14 beginning stocks. European Union production for 2013/14 is raised 0.4 million tons with small increases to reported crops in a number of member countries. Canada production is raised 1.7 million tons in line with official estimates. Global production, however, declines 2.6 million tons with production lowered 2.5 million tons for Russia, 1.5 million tons for Kazakhstan, and 1.0 million tons for Argentina. Reductions for Russia and Kazakhstan reflect late-season harvest reports for spring wheat. The reduction for Argentina is based on lower expected harvested area as dryness and late-season freeze events reduce prospects for a crop which will be harvested over the coming weeks.

Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is lowered 3.0 million tons with reductions in foreign feed and food use projected this month. Feed use is lowered for China, Russia, and the European Union, more than offsetting a small increase for South Korea. Food use is lowered for India, Russia, and the European Union. Global wheat trade, in the aggregate, is mostly unchanged this month with imports raised for several African countries and Mexico, but lowered for China, the European Union, and the Philippines. World exports decline slightly as reductions for Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Russia more than offset increases for Canada, the European Union, and India. World wheat stocks are projected 2.2 million tons higher with the biggest increases for the European Union, Canada, and Argentina.

COARSE GRAINS: Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 20.6 million tons higher compared with the September projection. A combination of higher 2012/13 and 2013/14 production and reduced consumption for 2012/13, mostly for corn, boost 2013/14 coarse grain supplies. Global 2013/14 coarse grain production is raised with a 6.2-million-ton increase in corn production. More than half of the increase is for the United States. Corn production is also raised for Russia, India, and the European Union. Corn production for Brazil is reduced with lower expected area as declines in interior corn prices push expected returns into negative territory for the safrinha crop, which will not be planted until January. Mexico production is also lowered.

Global 2013/14 corn consumption is raised 5.5 million tons with foreign consumption up 3.0 million. Corn feeding is raised for Mexico, Russia, Ukraine, Egypt, India, Colombia, and Turkey. Industrial use is raised for Brazil, but a larger reduction for China leaves foreign food, seed, and industrial use lower, partly offsetting the global increase in feed use. World corn exports for 2013/14 are raised 7.7 million tons as lower prices are expected to boost demand. Corn imports are raised for Mexico as sorghum imports are reduced. Sorghum imports, however, are raised for China. Corn imports are also raised for Egypt, the European Union, Colombia, and Turkey; all driven by higher expected feeding. Corn imports are lowered for South Korea with an increase in wheat feeding. In addition to the increase in U.S. corn exports, 2013/14 exports are also raised for Brazil, the European Union, and Russia. Global corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 12.9 million tons higher with most of the increase in China where consumption has been lowered for both 2012/13 and 2013/14. Corn stock changes elsewhere are mostly offsetting.

OILSEEDS: Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at a record 499.4 million tons, up 4.3 million from September. Higher soybean, sunflowerseed, and rapeseed forecasts account for most of the change. Global soybean production is projected at 283.5 million tons, up 1.9 million as the increase for the United States more than offsets reductions for India, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine. The India soybean crop is reduced 0.5 million tons to 11.8 million as excessive rainfall during much of the growing season reduced yield potential. Global sunflowerseed production is increased 1 million tons to a record 42.8 million on gains for Russia, European Union, and Moldova which are only partly offset by a reduction for Argentina. The increase for Russia reflects sharply higher yields reported in weekly harvest progress reports. Global rapeseed production is raised to a record 67.9 million tons reflecting gains for Canada, Ukraine, and the European Union. The increase for Canada is based on higher yields reported in the most recent survey from Statistics Canada. Almost ideal weather conditions throughout the growing season resulted in a projected record large crop despite the first decline in harvested area since 2006.

Revisions to the world 2013/14 oilseed supply and demand estimates include reduced soybean exports and increased crush for Argentina and increased soybean exports for Brazil. Soybean crush is reduced for India and Russia on smaller supplies. Rapeseed exports are increased for Canada and Ukraine, while imports are raised for China. Global oilseed stocks for 2013/14 are reduced 0.5 million tons to 80.7 million. Soybeans account for most of the change, with reduced stocks in Brazil more than offsetting gains in Argentina and the United States.