USDA September 2013

USDA reportsUSDA REPORT DD. 12/09/2013

WHEATGlobal 2013/14 wheat supplies are raised 3.0 million tons with increased production more than offsetting lower beginning stocks. World wheat production is projected at a record 708.9 million tons, up 3.5 million this month. Higher production in Canada, the European Union (EU), and the FSU-12 more than offsets reductions for Iran and Paraguay. Production is raised 2.0 million tons for Canada as cool July weather supported flowering and reproduction, and abundant soil moisture and favorably warm, dry weather in August aided grain fill and maturity across the Prairie Provinces. EU production is raised 1.5 million tons as harvest results confirm increases from the United Kingdom and Germany in the west to Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria in the east. Small increases are also made this month for Poland and the Czech Republic, both in the EU, and for non-member Serbia. FSU-12 production is raised 1.0 million tons as harvest results boost production 0.5 million tons for Ukraine and smaller increases are reported for Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. Production is lowered 1.0 million tons for Iran and 0.4 million tons for Paraguay.

Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is lowered slightly as reduced wheat feed use for Australia, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia is partly offset by higher feeding in Canada and Brazil and higher food use in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Indonesia. Global wheat trade is raised with higher imports expected for Egypt, Iran, and Brazil. Import reductions for South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam limit the global import increase. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons for the EU and 0.5 million tons for Canada, both with larger crops. Partly offsetting these increases are export reductions of 0.4 million tons for the UAE and 0.3 million tons each for Paraguay and Uzbekistan. With global consumption down slightly, higher production boosts projected global ending stocks 3.3 million tons. World wheat stocks are now expected to increase during 2013/14.

COARSE GRAINSGlobal coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 0.5 million tons lower mostly reflecting lower foreign corn production. Foreign 2013/14 corn production is lowered 2.5 million tons with reductions for Argentina, Canada, Serbia, and Paraguay. Reductions for Argentina and Paraguay reflect smaller expected areas for crops that have yet to be planted. Foreign corn beginning stocks for 2013/14 are raised 1.0 million tons mostly with an increase in 2012/13 Brazil production. Barley production for 2013/14 is raised 1.0 million tons for the European Union and 0.5 million tons each for Canada and Ukraine. Russia barley production is lowered 0.5 million tons. Global 2013/14 corn consumption is lowered with reductions in corn feeding in Argentina, Canada, and Serbia more than offsetting an increase for South Korea where wheat feeding is reduced this month. South Korea corn imports are raised accordingly. Corn exports for 2013/14 are lowered for Argentina, Paraguay, and Serbia. Global corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 1.3 million tons higher with larger stocks in Brazil and the United States.

OILSEEDSGlobal oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 495.1 million tons, up 2 million from last month. Gains in foreign production more than offset lower forecasts for the United States. Global soybean production is projected almost unchanged at a record 281.7 million tons as larger crop forecasts for Brazil and Paraguay mostly offset reductions for the United States, Canada, China, and Russia. Soybean production for Brazil is forecast at a record 88 million tons, up 3 million on increased area. Recent price strength and a weaker real are expected to provide incentives for soybean producers to increase area by 4 percent from last year. Soybean production for China is reduced 0.3 million tons to 12.2 million on lower yields resulting from excess rainfall and flooding in the northeast. If realized, this would be China’s smallest soybean harvest since 1992/93.

Global sunflowerseed production is raised 1.4 million tons to a record 41.8 million on higher forecasts for Ukraine and the European Union. Record production is forecast for Ukraine as favorable rainfall and temperatures in August and early September improved Ukraine yield prospects. Other changes include higher rapeseed and sunflowerseed production for the European Union, higher peanut production for India, and higher cottonseed production for Brazil and India. Global oilseed stocks are projected at 81.2 million tons, up 0.5 million as gains for rapeseed and sunflowerseed more than offset lower soybean stocks.